{"success":1,"msg":"","color":"rgb(28, 35, 49)","title":"Two applications in response to COVID-19: Modeling transmission using contact tracing data and modeling associated excess deaths<\/b>","description":"webinar","title2":"","start":"2021-08-13 14:30","end":"2021-08-13 15:30","responsable":"Isabelle Beaudry <\/i><\/a>","speaker":" Mark Handcock (UCLA)","id":"49","type":"webinar","timezone":"America\/Santiago","activity":"https:\/\/zoom.us\/j\/93547521589?pwd=bWFhQitVMzAwMEtBVXI2REJ6SUdZZz09\r\nPasscode: 239266","abstract":"In this talk we will cover two separate applications of statistical modeling, each aimed at epidemic modeling in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first we quantify the transmission potential of asymptomatic, presymptomatic and symptomatic cases using surveillance data from an outbreak in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. We develop a transmission model and use a Bayesian framework to estimate the proportions of asymptomatic, presymptomatic and symptomatic cases and transmissions. We map chains of transmission and estimate the basic reproduction number (R_0). In the second application we developed statistical models and methodology to understand the historical patterns of all-cause mortality data at the country\/regional level and to relate this to the level of all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. the focus here is providing private and flexible tools for public health epidemiologists to gauge current all-cause mortality to the historical patterns. We have developed and published an on\/off-line open-source Shiny app for the private analysis of all-cause mortality data. It presents various visualizations of the expected all-cause deaths and excess deaths."}